Sellers Get Some Relief, a Rate Hike Lands, and Ottawa Gets a New Federal Budget
Published Nov 6, 2026
It's been a busy few weeks for anyone buying, selling or just watching Ottawa's housing market. October's numbers are in, the Bank of Canada raised rates for the first time in more than three years, and the federal budget was tabled this week. Here's what it all means for you.
October at a glance
The Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) released its October figures on November 5. Here are the main numbers:
• Homes sold: 1,048, up 3.8% from September but down 10.7% from October 2025
• Average sale price: $678,512, down 4.5% year over year
• MLS® HPI composite benchmark price: $616,900, down 1.3% year over year
• New listings: 2,382, down 18.6% from September
• Active listings: 4,582, up 6.4% from a year ago
• Months of inventory: 4.4, down from 4.8 in September (3.7 a year ago)
• Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 44.0%, up from 34.5% in September
• Median days on market: 25.5
A small breather for sellers
September was tough for sellers. New listings jumped by more than a third in one month, and the sales-to-new-listings ratio fell to 34.5%, which is firmly buyer's market territory.
October eased things a little. Sales picked up modestly, fewer new homes came on the market, and inventory came down from its September peak. OREB President Tami Eades called it "some welcome relief for sellers."
The board was also clear that buyers still have plenty of choice, and conditions are softer than they were a year ago. October 2026 was the third-slowest October for sales since 2016. Homes sold for an average of 97.5% of list price, so there is still room to negotiate.
What's happening with prices
Prices are drifting lower across every property type, but how much depends on what you're buying:
• Single-family homes: benchmark of $699,200, down only 0.8% year over year. These are holding their value best.
• Townhouses: benchmark of $539,800, down 4.3%.
• Condo apartments: benchmark of $377,500, down 5.3%. This is the softest part of the market, with 7.4 months of inventory, up from 5.8 a year ago.
The suburbs continue to drive the market, accounting for almost 72% of all sales in October. Ottawa's east-end suburbs were the tightest part of the city, with just 3.5 months of inventory.
The Bank of Canada raises rates
On October 28, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.50%. It was the Bank's first increase since July 2023. Governor Tiff Macklem said higher energy prices had pushed the inflation outlook up, and that a hike was needed to keep inflation from becoming entrenched. The Bank expects inflation to end 2026 around 3.5%.
What this means for you:
• Variable-rate borrowers will see their costs go up right away. One mortgage broker estimated the increase at about $15 a month for every $100,000 of variable-rate debt.
• Fixed-rate buyers are less directly affected, since fixed rates follow bond yields. In early November, the lowest advertised 5-year fixed rates in Ottawa were around 4.6%.
• Pre-approvals matter more now. If you're planning to buy this winter or next spring, locking in a rate hold can protect you if rates rise further.
Macklem didn't promise more hikes but said they're possible. The next rate decision is on December 9.
The federal budget and Ottawa's public service
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne tabled Budget 2026 on November 5. On housing, the budget focuses on supply of non-market housing. It sets a target of 24,000 non-market housing starts a year over the next decade and adds $3.6 billion over four years, starting in 2027-28, for supportive and transitional housing.
For Ottawa, the bigger question is federal jobs. Last year's budget set a goal of shrinking the public service to about 330,000 positions by 2028-29, roughly 40,000 fewer than its 2024 peak. OREB pointed to a Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives analysis that found about 15,000 fewer people employed in Ottawa since March 2025, the biggest drop of any large Ontario municipality, with federal cuts a major cause.
Because the federal government is the region's largest employer, these changes affect buyer confidence here more than in most cities. That's one reason Ottawa's market has stayed cautious this year even though prices have held relatively steady.
What about renters?
Rents in Ottawa have been flat to slightly lower. According to Rentals.ca and Urbanation, the average asking rent in Ottawa was $2,179 in June, down 2.3% from a year earlier. A one-bedroom averaged $1,956. Many newer rental buildings are offering incentives such as free months to attract tenants. Ontario's rent increase guideline for covered units is 2.1% for 2026 and will fall to 1.9% in 2027.
What this means for buyers and sellers
If you're buying: This is one of the better negotiating environments Ottawa has seen in years. Inventory is healthy, prices are a little lower than last year, and sellers are generally realistic. Condos and
townhouses offer the most room to negotiate. Since rates are now moving up, get pre-approved and lock in a rate hold before you shop.
If you're selling: Pricing is everything. Homes that are priced right are still selling in under a month. Homes that are priced too high are sitting on the market. Detached homes in the suburbs are in the strongest position. Condo sellers should expect more competition and plan for it.
If you're waiting for spring: Watch the December 9 rate decision and early-2027 public service announcements. Both will shape how confident buyers feel when the spring market opens.
The bottom line
Ottawa's market is cooling gently, not crashing. Prices are a little lower than last year, buyers have more choice, and sellers got a bit of relief in October. Higher rates and uncertainty about federal jobs will likely keep things cautious through the winter.
Thinking about making a move? Get in touch and we'll walk you through what these numbers mean for your neighbourhood and your plans.
Sources: Ottawa Real Estate Board (October 2026 market report, published November 5, 2026); Bank of Canada (October 28, 2026 rate announcement); Budget 2026 coverage from CBC News and Future of Good; Rentals.ca/Urbanation National Rent Report; nesto.ca mortgage rate data. This post is for general information only and is not financial or legal advice
